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2024-12-14 03:05:48

Galaxy Securities: Macro-policies have increased the accumulation of positive factors in bank fundamentals. The china galaxy Securities Research Report said that the macro-policy upgrade has exceeded expectations and supported the growth of bank credit. Bank spreads are still under pressure, but the release of debt cost optimization results is expected to form support. Preventing and resolving the risk orientation in key areas remains unchanged, and the asset quality and risk expectation of banks are expected to benefit. The positive factors in the fundamentals of banking operations have accumulated, and we will continue to be optimistic about the allocation value of the banking sector and maintain the recommended rating. For individual stocks, ICBC, China Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank, Jiangsu Bank and Changshu Bank are recommended.CITIC Securities: More positive policy signals are expected to drive the market of resource products. CITIC Securities Research Report said that the Politburo meeting released more positive policy signals, and the improvement of the real economy is expected to boost the prices of upstream resource products and lead the sector to return to the upward trend. It is suggested to focus on three main lines: 1) improving the fundamentals of general steel, coking coal, copper-aluminum basic metals and chemicals with strong consumption attributes; 2) Bonus varieties such as crude oil and thermal coal under favorable market liquidity; 3) Growing varieties such as lithium and rare earth under the favorable market style.ADB lowered the growth forecast of developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region to maintain China's economic growth forecast. On December 11th, the Asian Development Bank issued the Asia Development Outlook 2024 (December Edition). According to the report, the development momentum in the Asia-Pacific region is steady, but as US President-elect Trump is about to take office, changes in his trade, finance and immigration policies may inhibit the development of the Asia-Pacific region and aggravate inflation. ADB lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region from the previous 5.0% to 4.9% in 2024, and from the previous 4.9% to 4.8% in 2025. China's economic growth is expected to remain at 4.8% and 4.5% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, which is the same as before.


Galaxy Securities: The equity market rebounded, and the improved double-low strategy exceeded 9% during the year. According to china galaxy Securities, the last cycle (11.26-12.9) recorded 2.3%, 1.7% and 3.2% respectively (the benchmark for the same period was 2.7%). Since the beginning of this year, the performance of the three types of strategies has been 8.5%, 8.6% and 15.1% respectively (the benchmark for the same period is 6.6%), and the cumulative excess rate of return is 2-9%. In the last cycle, the equity market rebounded and repaired. Wandequan A rose by 4.05%, and CSI convertible bonds followed (2.68%), among which the double-low style (3.25%) rose higher, and the low-price enhancement and low-price large-market strategy slightly underperformed the benchmark, and the double-low improvement strategy continued to dominate.Asian Development Bank: Reduce India's growth forecast from 7.0% to 6.5% in 2024 and from 7.2% to 7.0% in 2025.The latest monitoring report released by the World Bank shows that Lebanon's GDP will drop by 6.6% in 2024. The latest Lebanon economic monitoring report released by the World Bank on the 10th shows that the real GDP of Lebanon will drop by 6.6% in 2024 due to the influence of lebanon war. According to the report, the large-scale displacement, destruction and the reduction of personal consumption caused by the conflict have had a devastating impact on Lebanon's economy and exacerbated the country's macroeconomic challenges. The report emphasizes that after the upgrading of lebanon war in September this year, Lebanese key industries, including tourism, have been seriously affected.


OpenAI released the ChatGPT built-in tool Canvas. On December 11th, OpenAI launched the fourth day of technical live broadcast and released the latest function Canvas. According to reports, Canvas is directly built into ChatGPT, providing a separate window, which is mainly used for programming and writing tasks, providing opinions, reviewing and executing specific functions, and providing more detailed services. Simply put, Canvas is equivalent to a built-in Agent to help and guide ChatGPT to make better content generation and modification, and it is automatically triggered.Huatai Securities: 600 million yuan of movie-watching consumption subsidies help the film to pick up. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the sector. Huatai Securities Research Report said that the National Film Bureau launched the "National Film Consumption Season for the benefit of the people" on December 9, and the "consumption season" will be from December 2024 to February 2025. A total of not less than 600 million yuan of movie-watching consumption subsidies will be invested; On the supply side, movies for the Spring Festival in 2025 are scheduled one after another, including Bears, Gods 2 and Legend of the Condor Heroes, etc., and the head players gather, so the box office for the Spring Festival in 2025 is expected to usher in a strong performance. Looking forward to 2025, both ends of supply and demand are expected to improve, and the fundamental inflection point of the cinema line plate will be pushed upward. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the plate.CITIC Securities: In 2025, the performance boom cycle of the US Internet sector is expected to continue. According to CITIC Securities Research Report, looking forward to 2025, the macro resilience will continue, and the superimposed GenAI technology will continue to be introduced. The performance boom cycle of the US Internet sector is expected to continue, which is reflected in online advertising, e-commerce, streaming media, local life, financial technology and other sectors. However, the Trump administration's tariff increase & industry regulatory policies, inflation data, AI technology progress, etc. are expected to be continuous disturbance variables and need to be closely watched. At the level of individual stocks, the first-line Internet giants will still be the basic allocation. At the same time, we suggest that investors appropriately increase the allocation of small and medium-sized stocks in the fields of advertising technology and financial technology to enhance portfolio flexibility.

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